- Producers ask customers to nominate cargoes – Saudi Aramco, Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) and Iraq’s SOMO have asked Asian refiners to submit crude loading programmes for April and May.
- Tehran still blocks the waterway; there is no sign of Iran lifting the blockade despite the ceasefire.
- Saudi output and pipeline capacity already reduced by the attacks that cut 600,000 bpd of production and 700,000 bpd of east‑west pipeline throughput.
- Customers scramble to charter tankers as Aramco warns loading from Ras Tanura depends on Hormuz reopening.
Even as oil markets reel from supply shocks, Middle Eastern producers are quietly laying the groundwork to resume exports – but only if ships can safely transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources told Reuters that Saudi Aramco, KPC and Iraq’s SOMO have asked Asian refiners to submit April‑May loading programmes. The call for nominations followed a two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran that briefly raised hopes for a reopening of the waterway, through which roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG flows.
The optimism may be premature. Tehran has shown no sign yet of lifting its near‑total blockade of the strait. Exporters can only send cargoes from Saudi Arabia’s western port of Yanbu, while any loadings from Ras Tanura are contingent on safe passage through Hormuz.
Kuwait and Iraq are in a similar position, telling customers that nominated cargoes remain subject to the blockade. These caveats highlight the fragility of the situation: pipeline damage has already cut Saudi output by 600,000 bpd and reduced throughput on the east‑west pipeline by 700 000 bpd.
For buyers and traders of Middle Eastern crude, the message is clear: be ready to switch loading points, adjust schedules and pay higher freight costs.
Tanker rates have surged as owners demand premiums for sailing into the Gulf, and the backlog of vessels waiting to load will take time to clear. UK refiners may need to prioritise cargoes from west Africa, the North Sea and the US Gulf Coast to hedge against further delays in Hormuz.
This stop‑start dynamic also underscores a broader lesson. The world’s reliance on a narrow shipping lane in a geopolitically volatile region exposes global energy markets to outsized risk.
Even if the ceasefire holds and Iran eventually lifts the blockade, exporters are likely to diversify routes and buyers may favour crude that can bypass the Strait. That shifts global trade flows and could permanently alter benchmark differentials.
For the UK, increased use of domestic renewables and alternative imports (e.g. via northern Norway or Canada) will be critical to mitigate future supply shocks.
