- France, Italy, Poland and Romania imported record volumes of Chinese solar modules in March 2026 ahead of tax changes that will raise prices.
- Beijing scrapped a 9% export VAT rebate on solar panels on 1 April 2026 and reduced the battery rebate, a move expected to increase global module prices by around 10%.
- Rising prices for silver, copper and aluminium and partial rebate removal on batteries may drive total module costs up 15-20%, though they remain roughly 50% lower than in 2023.
European solar buyers are bracing for higher panel prices as China’s government removes export tax rebates and raw‑material costs spike.
Imports surged to record levels in March as installers tried to lock in prices ahead of the changes, but analysts warn that cost pressures could slow the rooftop solar boom just as Europe seeks to cut reliance on Russian gas.
The world’s largest solar panel manufacturer, China, scrapped a 9% value‑added tax rebate on exported photovoltaic modules from 1 April 2026, a policy designed to encourage domestic consumption and support the Chinese treasury. Battery rebates were cut to 6% with plans for full removal by January 2027.
Meanwhile, prices for key inputs such as silver, copper and aluminium have climbed sharply on global commodity markets. Analysts interviewed by Euronews predict that combined tax and material changes could increase module prices by 15-20% by the end of 2026.
Smart Homes Electrical, an installer, notes that the price rise may differ by region and system but is expected to be gradual rather than an immediate spike.
Import surge
Europe imported record volumes of Chinese panels in March 2026 to avoid paying more after the policy change. The price rise could complicate the EU’s plans to triple rooftop solar capacity and hinder home‑energy upgrades, especially in the UK where households face energy‑bill pressures.
Despite cost increases, experts note that panels remain about 50% cheaper than in 2023, meaning solar still offers favourable returns over its lifetime.
Industry analysts also note that the rebates’ removal may accelerate European efforts to build domestic module manufacturing. However, European production currently accounts for only a tiny fraction of global output, and supply chain bottlenecks persist.
PV installers caution that some homeowners may delay installations, but many will proceed given long‑term energy savings and record support from feed‑in tariffs.
The price pressures highlight Europe’s reliance on Chinese solar manufacturing. For policymakers, the situation underscores the need to develop domestic supply chains and diversify import sources. While short‑term affordability concerns may slow uptake, the overall economics of solar remain compelling as electricity prices stay elevated and carbon policies tighten.
The challenge for the UK and its neighbours will be balancing supply chain resilience with rapid deployment targets.
