- European gas storage is only 54% full, significantly below its five-year average and at its second-lowest level in 15 years.
- Equinor expects the region to struggle to reach even the relaxed 80% storage threshold before winter.
- Disrupted Qatari LNG supply and stronger Asian demand have weakened assumptions that Europe can refill through additional imports.
Europe is increasingly likely to enter winter with unusually low gas stocks, leaving consumers and industry more exposed to price spikes if cold weather coincides with further supply disruption.
Anders Opedal, chief executive of Europe’s largest gas supplier Equinor, said storage sites may not reach even 80% of capacity this autumn. European inventories currently stand at about 54%, compared with much higher levels at the same stage of recent refill seasons.
“We do not think that Europe will necessarily be able to fill up its stocks to more than 80% this autumn,” said Opedal following Equinor’s Q2 earnings release.
The warning represents a deterioration from assessments made earlier in the summer. Analysis published by EU energy regulator ACER on 7 July found that Europe could reach 80% using LNG import volumes broadly comparable with 2025. Reaching the normal 90% target would have required imports to rise by about 13%.
That assessment depended on enough LNG being available. The continuing Middle East conflict has since tightened the global market, disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz and redirected cargoes towards Asian buyers seeking to replace Qatari supply.
According to Opedal, LNG previously delivered to Europe is now being diverted to Asia because Qatari cargoes would ordinarily have served customers there. Europe relies on LNG for roughly 30% of its gas import requirements by Equinor’s calculation, making competition for marginal cargoes increasingly important.
The European Commission has allowed countries to reduce their normal 90% storage obligation under difficult market conditions. The formal rules also provide a two-month window between 1 October and 1 December and make intermediate filling trajectories indicative rather than binding.
Regulatory flexibility can prevent governments from bidding against each other to meet an arbitrary deadline, but it cannot replace the physical value of stored gas. Inventories allow markets to meet heating demand during cold spells without relying entirely on immediate pipeline and LNG deliveries.
Growing exposure
Naturgy offered an even starker assessment alongside its half-year results. Steven Fernández, the Spanish utility’s head of financial markets and corporate development, warned that a cold winter could create shortage risks by February 2027.
“Planning must be made now ahead of the winter,” he said. Naturgy itself is comparatively well protected through flexible long-term US LNG contracts, but the wider market does not have the same contractual cover.
Europe does retain several defences. Norwegian pipeline supply remains substantial, demand has fallen since the 2022 energy crisis and the continent has added significant LNG import capacity. ACER found that the gas system should remain operationally resilient provided sufficient cargoes can be secured.
The qualification is crucial. Regasification terminals do not improve security if LNG is unavailable or Asian buyers offer higher prices. Low inventories also narrow the margin for coping with an outage affecting Norway, the US or another major supplier.
Britain is outside the EU storage regime but remains exposed. More than 70% of British homes use gas for heating, the hydrocarbon remains a key source of electricity and the country has storage capacity equivalent to only about 12 days of demand, compared with several months in parts of continental Europe.
The UK can receive Norwegian pipeline gas and LNG directly, but those supplies are priced in an interconnected European and global market. Lower continental stocks therefore increase Britain’s exposure even if no physical shortage develops.
The immediate risk is not that Europe will run out of gas when winter begins. It is that the system will enter the season with less flexibility than usual, making prices highly sensitive to weather, outages and the duration of the Middle East disruption.
