- Only six weeks of jet fuel left: The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel supply remaining following disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. IEA chief Fatih Birol warned flight cancellations could begin as soon as May if shipments do not resume.
- Birol expects higher petrol, gas and electricity prices. Airports Council International Europe said shortages could begin in early May unless tankers resume sailing. Britain, Iceland and the Netherlands are among the countries most exposed.
- Airlines for Europe urged the EU to require fuel suppliers to publish real‑time inventory data. TotalEnergies warned that if Gulf flows stay shut into June it may not be able to supply all customers.
As the Iran war drags into its seventh week, Europe is staring down a severe jet fuel shortage that threatens to ground flights within weeks.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has cut tanker traffic to a fraction of the usual 130 daily crossings, leaving European refineries scrambling. In an interview, IEA executive director Fatih Birol said Europe has “maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left”. Calling the situation a “dire strait” he characterised it as the largest energy crisis in modern history.
The implications are immediate: flight cancellations could begin in early May and ripple across petrol, gas and power prices. Airports Council International Europe has already alerted the European Commission that shortages could begin at the start of May if shipping lanes don’t reopen.
Birol emphasised that pain will not be evenly distributed. Austria, Bulgaria and Poland have ample reserves, while Britain, Iceland and the Netherlands are among the most exposed. Smaller inland airports, which lack large storage facilities, will be the first to run dry.
European airlines and airport operators are calling on Brussels to mandate transparency from fuel suppliers, who are reluctant to reveal stock levels. TotalEnergies has warned that if Gulf supplies remain shut through June, it may be unable to meet all customer orders.
Birol, meanwhile, criticised Iran’s reported plan to charge tolls for ships passing through Hormuz, arguing that such fees could set a dangerous precedent for global shipping. He noted that developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America – where reliance on imported fuel is highest – will suffer first.
With no short‑term relief in sight, the looming jet‑fuel shortage exposes the fragility of global supply chains and underscores the urgency for Europe and the UK to diversify energy sources and accelerate alternative aviation fuels.
