- EU countries have spent more than €100 billion extra on energy imports since the Iran conflict began without receiving additional fuel.
- Diesel exposure is a particular concern, with roughly half of Europe’s direct diesel imports coming from the US.
- Ministers are combining short-term support and demand reduction with a longer-term push towards grids, electrification and domestic clean power.
EU countries have spent more than an additional €100 billion on imported energy since the outbreak of the Iran war, intensifying pressure on ministers to reduce the bloc’s structural dependence on internationally traded fossil fuels.
EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen presented the estimate at an informal meeting of the bloc’s energy ministers in Dublin. Despite the additional expenditure, Europe had not received “one extra molecule of gas or oil”, he said.
The increase reflects soaring oil, gas and refined fuel prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one fifth of internationally traded oil previously passed. Petrol and diesel prices in some EU countries have risen by close to 50%, according to the Associated Press.
The immediate concern is affordability rather than an absolute shortage. The European Commission says diversified gas supplies, strategic stocks and expanded LNG import capacity mean there is no immediate security-of-supply threat for winter 2026-27. Nevertheless, storage levels are unusually low for the season, while high prices are placing pressure on households, transport operators and energy-intensive industries.
Diesel represents a specific vulnerability. International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol described Europe as “one of the most exposed regions” because of its high import requirement. About half of the EU’s directly imported diesel currently comes from the US, where calls for export restrictions ahead of the midterm elections have added another political risk.
Jørgensen said Europe must replace imported fossil fuels with “homegrown energy: green electrons”.
Crisis measures meet structural reform
The Commission’s response is running on two tracks. In the near term, its AccelerateEU measures encourage coordination of gas storage filling, possible releases from strategic oil reserves and targeted assistance for vulnerable consumers and industries. A temporary state-aid framework covers exposed sectors including transport, agriculture and energy-intensive manufacturing, while a new Fuel Observatory will monitor production, trade and stock levels.
Ministers are also considering further demand reduction for gas and electricity. This may appear contradictory, given the longer-term objective of electrifying transport, buildings and industry. The distinction is between emergency conservation during a price shock and structural substitution of fossil fuels with a larger, cleaner electricity system.
The Commission wants electricity’s share of final energy consumption to rise from roughly 23% today to 46% by 2040. It estimates that this could cut annual fossil fuel imports by €260 billion, but achieving it will require substantial investment in generation, grids, storage and flexible demand.
The crisis is also exposing tension between energy security and environmental regulation. Jørgensen has instructed Commission officials to examine postponing the EU’s incoming methane requirements for imported fuels. He said the review concerned timing rather than weakening the rules, but the discussion illustrates how quickly supply concerns can challenge transition policy.
For the UK, leaving the EU did not reduce exposure to European gas, diesel and electricity prices – but it did remove the UK from the bloc’s formal crisis-coordination structures. British consumers and businesses remain exposed to the same traded markets and refinery constraints.
Europe’s response nevertheless creates opportunities for UK suppliers of interconnectors, grid equipment, storage, offshore wind services and energy-efficiency technology. It also raises the competitive bar. If EU members coordinate infrastructure spending while Britain’s projects remain delayed by connections or financing, investment may gravitate towards the larger integrated market.
The €100 billion figure is more than a measure of crisis expenditure. It is a price tag for strategic dependence, and an argument that clean electricity infrastructure should be treated as an economic security asset.
