Serica Energy has lowered its 2026 production forecast after a further delay to the restart of the Triton production vessel, where maintenance is now expected to last around four months rather than the two originally anticipated.
The UK North Sea producer said on 19 October that annual output would average just below 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), compared with its previous expectation of above that level. It retained its forecast for annual post-tax operating cash flow, supported by gas prices and production from its expanded portfolio.
Triton’s annual maintenance began on 27 July. During final preparations and safety checks before the planned restart, the operator identified the need to replace an engine in one of the vessel’s power generation units. Production is now expected to resume around the end of November.
Maintenance drives sharp quarterly production fall
Serica’s third-quarter production averaged 22,100 boepd, down approximately 56% from 50,200 boepd in the previous quarter. Planned maintenance at both the Bruce and Triton hubs accounted for much of the decline.
Bruce contributed 8,300 boepd during the quarter, compared with 18,400 boepd in the second quarter. Triton’s contribution fell to 4,600 boepd from 20,300 boepd.
Bruce restarted on 12 September and is currently producing around 20,000 boepd net to Serica, predominantly gas.
Despite the quarterly fall, production over the first nine months averaged 37,100 boepd, up 44% from the same period in 2025. Revenue more than doubled to $905 million, although third-quarter revenue was $228 million.
The figures show the distinction between Serica’s underlying expansion and its immediate operating constraints: the enlarged business is producing more than a year earlier, but maintenance has restricted the contribution from two principal hubs.
Acquired gas assets support year-end recovery
Current production exceeds 40,000 boepd before Triton returns, helped by around 12,000 boepd from the Southern North Sea gas portfolio recently acquired from Spirit Energy.
Serica continues to expect production rates of around 65,000 boepd by the end of 2026 once Triton resumes operations. That is a year-end production rate, rather than a forecast for average annual output.
The acquisition has therefore reduced Serica’s dependence on Triton for near-term production, although the vessel’s return remains central to the expected increase.
Chief executive Chris Cox described the extended downtime as frustrating but necessary, while pointing to the contribution from the company’s broader portfolio.
Cash-flow guidance holds despite lower output
Serica maintained its forecast for post-tax cash flow from operations of $450 million–$475 million. Capital expenditure guidance also remains unchanged at $175 million–$195 million.
The company attributed the unchanged cash-flow outlook to prevailing gas prices, greater diversification and production elsewhere in the portfolio.
Cash fell to $227 million at 30 September from $326 million at the end of June. Quarterly payments included a $52 million dividend, $27 million in tax and $43 million paid to Spirit Energy on completion of the acquisition.
Borrowings remained at $300 million, leaving net debt of $73 million.
Bruce drilling scheduled for 2027
Alongside restoring production, Serica is finalising a rig contract for a multi-well drilling campaign across its portfolio.
Drilling at Bruce is scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2027, with first production expected within 12 months of the start. The company is also progressing development proposals at Kyla, Edradour Royal Sovereign and Spinnaker, alongside plans to drill the Skerryvore exploration prospect next year.
Serica continues to assess acquisition opportunities in the UK North Sea and overseas. It also expects to publish the prospectus for its planned move from AIM to the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market later this week.
