- Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s warning that the UK could curtail industrial gas users during an exceptionally cold winter suggests an emergency mechanism, not the system operator’s central forecast.
- Ineos’s decision to mothball three Hull chemical plants turns the debate from theoretical supply security to an immediate industrial competitiveness problem.
- The UK’s greater near-term vulnerability is likely to be unaffordable gas rather than unavailable gas, strengthening the case for storage, demand reduction and clean dispatchable power alongside domestic production.
Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s warning that the UK could run short of gas during a severe cold spell has sharpened after his chemicals group, Ineos, mothballed three chemical plants in Hull because of high energy costs.
The Ineos chairman previously told the BBC that, in an exceptionally cold winter, “there is conceivably the possibility that we’ll run out of gas and have to switch industry off”. The remarks were made as Ratcliffe opened Project Greensand, a carbon storage development in Denmark, and renewed his criticism of UK North Sea policy.
On Tuesday, Ineos moved from warning about industrial exposure to curtailing production. The company said it was idling all three of its Hull acetyls units, Europe’s last plants of comparable scale, because gas is used both as fuel and as a production feedstock.
Two units had already stopped and the third was due to follow within days. The facilities produce chemical intermediates used in pharmaceuticals, clothing, detergents, construction products and explosives. Around 240 people are employed directly, while Ineos says the wider operations support almost 4,000 jobs.
“With gas prices now 12 times the level in the US and eight times that of China, we just cannot compete,” Ratcliffe said in the company’s announcement.
Curtailment possible but not guaranteed
Ratcliffe is correct that large industrial users can be disconnected during a gas supply emergency. Health and Safety Executive arrangements explicitly provide for industrial curtailment to protect households, priority consumers and the pressure of the network. In practice, therefore, the UK would begin switching off selected demand before residential customers literally ‘ran out’ of gas.
However, the probability of reaching that point remains contested. National Gas’s latest published outlook covers the summer rather than winter 2026-27. It expected sufficient supply under current conditions and forecast that UK and Norwegian production would provide approximately 86% of summer supply, supplemented by LNG and storage. Its definitive winter assessment has yet to be published.
The government told Parliament this month that storage met 5% of British gas demand last winter and is expected to make a similar contribution this year. Britain has eight storage facilities with maximum capacity of about 3.2 billion cubic metres, but relies more heavily than continental Europe on Norwegian pipelines, LNG terminals and interconnectors.
European conditions nevertheless leave little room for complacency. Gas Infrastructure Europe put EU storage at 70.1% full on 22 September, materially below recent seasonal norms. Germany and the Netherlands were particularly weak. The European Commission has nevertheless said there is “no immediate” security-of-supply risk, citing increased LNG capacity, lower demand and greater supply diversification.
The distinction that matters for UK industry is between physical security and economic security. LNG can normally be attracted to the UK if buyers pay enough, but the clearing price may force energy-intensive production offline long before the national network enters an emergency.
Additional North Sea output could reduce import dependence and strengthen resilience, but UK production is too small to dictate prices in an integrated European market. Storage policy, industrial energy support and faster deployment of renewables, flexibility and low-carbon firm power are therefore at least as important.
Ineos’s Hull decision is the stronger warning. The UK may get through winter with sufficient molecules while still losing the industrial consumers that need them.
